It will be interesting to see how Bernhard's departure will affect the restructuring process. Will VWAG continue on its present course and once again become profitable in the US by 2008, or will the Porsche influence (allegedly instigated by Ferdinand Piech) put this to a dead stop? My take: I am optimistic. Winterkorn (can't remember his first name), the former head of Audi, is slated to take over as CEO of Volkswagen. Audi did very well under his reign. The Porsche family is slated to own nearly 30% of VW by this year. While Piech is regarded as Satan by many...I can't see him repeating the same mistake that resulted in a 37% drop in sales (in the US)from 2001-2005. Too much money was invested in moving upscale (the W-8 Passat and the disasterous Phaeton), and not enough was put into quality control. However, Porsche has very high quality and is one of the most profitable car companies in the world; not to mention that VW and Porsche SHOULD be together, since Ferdinand designed our lovable Beetle to begin with. What I expect to see in the next few years is VW returning to its roots. There will be more differentiation in prices of Volkswagens and Audis. I would expect to see the next generation New Beetle based on the Polo platform (as was the original plan), and maybe an additional entry-level sub-$14000 VW of some sort, while Audi moves even higher upscale. I expect that the current Jetta V will have a short lifecycle. Sales are not what were expected, and are already going south. A Jetta VI, probably styled more like the Jetta IV, will arrive 2-3 years earlier than originally planned. With that said, however, while many younger dubbers are turned off by the Jetta V's Corolla-like looks, I have always believed that the Jetta IV sold as well as it did because of the New Beetle's halo effect. The New Beetle's introduction in 1998 brought VWoA to sales numbers that they hadn't enjoyed since Gerald Ford was president. The only way this will be repeated is if VW continues to remember their roots. Changing the Golf name back to the Rabbit was a great idea, and if you count the Golf, GTI, and R32 in the same category, sales have jumped over 70%. Volkswagen literally means "People's Car," and they need to have lower-priced models to compete with the Aveos, Accents,and Versas of the world. These kinds of cars aren't as profitable, but volume would more than compensate for that. 2007 will probably be flat at best for VW0A, and may even see a drop from 2006, but once the new diesel fuel arrives in 2008, things will be different. Try to imagine a Polo-based Beetle that gets 50 mpg and costs about $15000 fully loaded. That's what VW needs to do, IMO........
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